I think we are in the middle of an important change in our use of technology. The pieces are there but aren't being seen clearly yet. The recent economic unpleasantness has accellerated the trend.
MP3
Mp3 is lossy and imperfect, which gets audiophiles all in a tizzy. Hey, if the population wanted perfect sound reproduction they'd use .flac or .ape or something like that. But they don't.
Recommendation: record companies should give away very low bandwidth (64k?) music and sell the higher bitrate stuff. People might pirate 128k or higher, but I believe the public would sample 64k and buy what they like for acceptable listening. Same for movie companies and iPod-sized video. Use the low quality encodings to drive business to the "real" product.
Related prediction: increasing use of opensource .ogg. Increasing use of opensource firmware that plays open formats like .ogg and lossless formats like .ogg and .flac.
cheap netbooks
OLPC tried to do it, but it appears Google will actually end up creating very cheap netbooks like this ~$100 version. Heavy gaming? No. Business meetings? Probably not. But most of us don't need screaming (and battery-draining) CPUs and acres of diskspace. How many people buy a PC from Dell based on important-looking performance numbers then never do anything more cpu-intensive than email and Word? If you are rendering CAD, gaming, editing video, or writing compiled code you likely need a fast machine. Most everyone else does not.
Related prediction: increase in numbers of opensource-powered adequate hardware. More attention paid to battery life. Cheap/ugly solar panels on the PC lid?
Yaris, Fit, Hyundai, Kia
Simple cars that get us from here to there. Cars have become excessively marketed, positioned, overstyled and effectively inbred. Simple cars and effective cars (like the Prius) may be the new Model T.
Mesh and other narrowband wifi networks
I think there is a place for free, narrow bandwidth wireless networks. Enough to read webmail and do light (proxystripped?) surfing but not enough to run p2p, move nontrivial binaries, or stream video.
Recommendation: communities partner with their local cable or other utils to put up mesh networks for free, and offer higher, sexier bandwidth for the normal rate.
Ok, must make coffee now so I can make better sense than the above.
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6 years ago